in my latest game submit, i lost 40k points.... um... what???
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ok that was very strange, i submitted another game and got back about 10k, but the 40k drop was very random. Donno what happened
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Ok, lets looks what happened :
On the first submission:
block 0 (0-30 days): 11 60K games before the submission; 1 new 60K game but 1 left. So no variation on score
block 1 (31-60 days): 20 games for a raw total of 1170K. 1 60K games added so net score before submission was 248 539 K and after 254987. So 6.5K gained
block 2 (61-90 days): 2 games before (1 29K and 1 60K), only the 29K after. SO the score pass from 56 671 to 26 145 (30K loss)
block 3 (91 - 120 days): 2 games before for a raw score of 110K, one more 60K game after. So the score pass from 66K to 83K (17K gained)
no block 4
block 5 (151 - 220 days): 2 60K game before, only one after. So the score pass from 63K to 45K (18K loss)
block 6: 20 games for a raw total of 273K before, one 60K game more after. So the score pass from 43K to 51K (8K gained).
The total variation was : 6.5 - 30 +17 - 18 + 8 = -16.5 K
ok, it is a loss but not the 40K loss experienced (my formula could be wrong), but still a loss. And the explanation was to search in block where there are few games (block 2).
Since the formula for each block is :
raw total / squareroot (number of games in block ) =
average for block * squareroot(number of games in block), we see that everything that dramatically change the average of block or the square root in a block (like 1 game leaving when there are only 2) have an important impact on the score.
If a new game, scoring the average of a block is added in a block where there are already N games, the difference is :
average * squareroot(N+1) - average * squareroot(N)
= average * sqrt(N) * ( sqrt ( 1 +1/N) - 1)
approx avearge * sqrt(N) ( 1 -2/N - 1) = a
average / (2 * sqrt(N)).
So in the same day, adding a 60K in a block where there is already 11 60K games (case of the second submisison): 60K/(2*sqrt(11)) = 9K gained.
Hope this is a little clearer.
The Diplomats http://diplomats.galciv.org/ - Active! ~ Not Reactive!
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