Quoting srw46, reply 22
Can we agree that quoting numbers from two of your own titles and one other 'that a friend told me' is a million miles from an exhaustive canvassing of the TBS playing demographic?
[quote who="Kantok" reply="30" id="3058246"]
Quoting srw46, reply 22
Can we agree that quoting numbers from two of your own titles and one other 'that a friend told me' is a million miles from an exhaustive canvassing of the TBS playing demographic?
Frogboy's "from a friend" is not Joe Schmucko down the block. It's the people that work at Firaxis. You know, the people that would know better than anyone else in the world just how successful Civ's MP has been.
Quoting srw46, reply 22
Can we also agree that without the methods of collecting being cited, the numbers are of very limited value? I could say that 98% of players want MP based on my own data collection but without detailing how I collected it that figure is worthless (and absurd). I'm not accusing you of that, of course, I'm sure your indicators are fairly sensible but they can't really be evaluated otherwise.
Granted, clocking users as they come into the lobby is a seemingly viable way to measure such a thing but I have little faith in polling and the like. Although even then, bear in mind that myself and my circle of friends are die-hard multiplayers and the reason that some or all of us never entered the lobby with WoM is because we already know that the multiplayer just wasn't there. Thus the figure is skewed and unreliable. As impressive as your 1% sounds I think it says a lot more about the state of multiplayer in WoM than it does about demand.
These concepts must be considered abstractly, too. It's fine to say, historically only a quarter of people played Demigod but then Demigod was a title of very varied reception. Many people don't go beyond a review score. Why to assume that the multiplayer crowd were actually drawn enough to your title? Multiplayers are loyal beasts and rarely jump ship for anything less than the best. An MP-centric title with rave reviews has no trouble selling. You present the Demi-god figure as evidence of the fractional demand of multiplayer but given that it's a multiplayer centric game could it not be presented equally as evidence for falling at it's central objective?
Make up your mind. Does empirical evidence matter or not? Frogboy just gave you the two most relevant samples for the importance of multiplayer in EFE. EWOM and Civ4. One was the most hyped Fantasy TBS in years the other probably the most successful TBS in a decade (and maybe ever). In both cases multiplayer participation was too weak to have justified the financial commitment from the studios. They justified it out of love for the genre and for multiplayer in general. Surely Civ4 had an active MP community no? It attracted the "loyal beasts" certainly, didn't it? And yet still it was only 4% of the player base.
Quoting srw46, reply 22
Also, most multiplayers will learn a game in singeplayer before they bring their game to the lobby. Is there anything to disprove that 60% of users didn't buy Demigod with the intent of playing multiplayer, but didn't like it enough to continue beyond the 'campaign'? Only 23% of people entering the lobby does not actually prove conclusively that only 23% of people were interested in multiplayer. Would you not agree?
Furtermore, who is likely to be playing Demigod today? The 77% who have rinsed single player or the multiplayer community? How do you attribute the value of demand? If 8/10 people play a game alone for 6 months and then shelf it but the remaining 2/10 play it for several years should the value be assessed on a 1 for 1 basis? Many older games still exist in the public mind on the weight of their multiplayer community alone. Different genre I know, but where would SC1 be now with no MP component? The lesson is valid.
There's also nothing to disprove the fact that 60% of Demigod players intended to play multiplayer exclusively but didn't for fear that it would trigger the aliens living on the moon to kidnap them and subject them to uncomfortable anal experiments. You can't declare an unprovable assertion and then proceed to base your argument on it.
I'd argue that 23% entering the lobby would be an inflated number, especially if you're trying to argue that it represents those who will become consistent and long term MPs. What portion of the 23% entered the lobby just to see what Demigod MP was like with no intention of ever seriously playing MP. This was the category I fell into. How many entered the lobby accidentally? 23% is the upper limit of your number, not the lower limit.
Why on earth should a company value a long term multiplayer more than a singleplayer gamer? They likely earn no extra revenue from that multiplayer but likely incur some greater cost (or at best have no cost or revenue). Besides, TBS is not SC1. If the sandbox mode is done well, singleplayer focused gamers will spend just as much time (measured in hours or longevity, however you like) with the game as multiplayer gamers will.
Quoting srw46, reply 22
Demigod is also three years old. Do you not see a gaming world that hinges exponentially around multiplayer? Tell me if I'm insane because that's what I see. Also, even for the sake of argument we allow for the fact that only one quarter (still a fairly large 'fraction') are historically interested in MP in a 4x TBS that statement completely ignores a dynamic and changing world. Who's to say the people buying 4x TBS games tomorrow entertain exactly the same breakdown? In fact, all reason suggests the trend only has one way to go, does it not?
See Frogboy's Civ4 stat. It's not 25%. It's more like 4%. Your arguments also ignore the demographic difference of the various genres. How many TBS (or Fantasy TBS) gamers are likely to also be avid multiplayer gamers? A rise in MP (mainly in MMOs, FPSs, and some hybrid adventure games) does not obviously translate into TBS games where the demographic population is generally a little older and generally has less predictable blocks of free time.
Quoting srw46, reply 22
Soundbites are all well and good but in reality they barely scratch the surface. That 77% means very little to me when it fails so spectacularly to reconcile with the world I see all around me every single day.
At the end of the day, to be clinical about it, you're here to shift boxes and I appreciate that. There are also practical limitations to just how exhaustively such an issue can be explored and I understand that too. But shifting boxes is well and good but the games that are years, even decades old but still have strong communities and lasting legacies and whose originating studios enjoy prolific status usually share two characteristics: A moddable aspect and a multiplayer aspect.
To say one final thing. None of these figures seek to address the fact that the box said multiplayer and what was in it, didn't have multiplayer (in any functional state). A decision for no MP may disappoint. Broken promises enflame.
You're experiencing recency bias. In your world you've seen a series of successful MP games, reinforced by the fact that you seek out successful MP games. You'll naturally associate the success of those games to MP and make inordinate weight on the MP component even when the weight you place on it does not agree with the empirical evidence.
Just for the record, EFE never committed to MP. As long as three months ago Brad said that he wanted MP to be included but that it would be cut if including it was going to detract from the work on the single player experience.
I get that you feel shafted for the MP experience of EWOM, but that doesn't entitle you to a MP experience in EFE. I felt just as shafted by the single player experience of EWOM. The vast majority of players for EWOM played it for sandbox single player. SD is trying to make good on those bad feelings first while acknowledging that they may address MP in the future. From a customer satisfaction perspective it makes sense for an organization that does not have unlimited resources.